Brajša et al. 2022 paper selected for the cover page of Astronomische Nachrichten

Written by Jaša Čalogović Monday, 28 March 2022 11:39

Recently published Brajša et al. 2022 paper “A prediction for the 25th solar cycle maximum amplitude“ was chosen for the cover page of the March issue of the Astronomische Nachrichten journal. Figure at the cover page shows the smoothed monthly sunspot number in solar cycle maxima as a function of the same quantity three years before the preceding solar minimum, for solar cycles number 1–24. Least-square fits obtained with and without the peculiar solar cycle no. 19 are presented as blue and red solid lines, respectively. Dashed lines represent uncertainty of the fits. The location of solar cycle no. 19 is represented by the filled circle, while all other cycles are represented with open circles. Knowing that the last solar minimum was in December 2019, this correlation allows a prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25: Rmax = 121 ± 33. Brajša et al. analysis indicates that the next solar maximum will be of the similar amplitude as the previous one, or even something lower.