New space weather forecast tool - FDFT
Autor Mateja Dumbovic Srijeda, 11 Ožujak 2015 14:29
New space weather forecast tool „Forbush decrease Forecast Tool (FDFT)" is now available at Hvar Observatory webpage. FDFT is based on an empirical probabilistic model for the estimation of the Forbush decrease magnitude based on the remote CME/flare observations. It uses CME-speed, CME width, associated flare source position, associated flare soft X-ray peak intensity, and interaction parameter (likeliness of the CME-CME interaction) as an input. It provides Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude probability distribution and expected FD magnitude interval as an output. The details regarding the forecast method and the evaluation will be described in detail in the manuscript "Forbush decrease prediction based on the remote solar observations" by Dumbović et al., which is in preparation.Umirovljen tehničar Nikša Novak nakon 36 godina rada na Opservatoriju
Autor Mateja Dumbovic Utorak, 10 Veljača 2015 14:31
Proceedings and photos from XIIIth HAC
Autor Jaša Čalogović Nedjelja, 05 Listopad 2014 22:51
The Proceedings of the XIIIth Hvar Astrophysical Colloquium will be published in a special volume of the Central European Astrophysical Bulletin. The deadline for submitting the manuscripts is December 1st, 2014. All other details about the proceedings can be found here.
Peter Foukal visted Hvar Observatory
Autor Davor Sudar Četvrtak, 02 Listopad 2014 20:09
Peter Foukal, member of U.S. National Academy of Sciences Panel on Sun-Climate Influences and the author of the book Solar Astrophysics, visited the Hvar Observatory on September 20th, 2014. Apart from showing the observatory to the distinguished guest, we also used this opportunity for taking some photos.XIIIth Hvar Astrophysical Colloquium
Autor Jaša Čalogović Nedjelja, 24 Kolovoz 2014 00:00
XIIIth Hvar Astrophysical Colloquium: Physics of the Solar Atmosphere will be organized from 22. to 26. September 2014 in Hvar, Croatia. The scientific sessions will include following sessions: Global Sun and Solar Cycle, Observing Techniques and Data Archives, Plasma and MHD Processes, Flares and CMEs, Space Weather and Space Climate.SCOSTEP Launches VarSITI Program to Explore the Origin and Consequences of a Weak Sun
Autor Jaša Čalogović Ponedjeljak, 13 Siječanj 2014 13:52
Although the Sun just recently provided strong flare on 7th January 2014, 18:30 UTC connected with coronal mass ejection (CME) and this time luckily with minor impact on Earth, the current 24 solar cycle is in general much weaker than previous solar cycles. That something is changing on the longer timescales related to solar activity was already indicated by the number of spotless days in the last solar minimum which was the largest in last century. To investigate rather unusual solar cycle in the last year MiniMax24 campaign was started, leaded by Manuela Temmer from Graz University, where Hvar Observatory was also involved with expertise and Hvar solar Telescope observations. The continuation of this campaign in now foreseen in new scientific program called VarSITI (VARiability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact).
One of the scientific elements of VarSITI is ISEST (Internatinal Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients) which tries to understand the origin, propagation and evolution of solar transients through the space between the Sun and the Earth, and develop the prediction capability of space weather. In the frame of ISEST last year (2013) the ISEST workshop on Hvar was organized in June.
Beside the ISEST, Hvar Observatory performs also research on solar activity influences on Earth’s climate and weather (ROSMIC). There are still many contended mechanisms that link the solar activity and Earth’s climate. If such weaker solar activity continues in the future, it will be interesting to observe the eventual climatic changes linked to solar activity in the next decades.
Opširnije: SCOSTEP Launches VarSITI Program to Explore the Origin and Consequences of a Weak Sun
Photos - ISEST Workshop
Autor Jaša Čalogović Subota, 13 Srpanj 2013 16:36
All group photos as well the photos from social events during ISEST Workshop in Hvar (17. – 20. June 2013) are available in photo gallery here.Second Announcement - ISEST, Hvar, 17.-20.6.2013
Autor Jaša Čalogović Utorak, 12 Ožujak 2013 14:04
This is the second announcement for the International Study for Earth-Affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) Workshop in Hvar, Croatia, June 17-20, 2013. ISEST is intended to bring together scientists from different countries to interact and establish collaborations that can effectively address the physical mechanisms of the origin and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), toward the goal of developing the prediction capability of solar transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth. This is a newly established program under SCOSTEP CAWSES-II. The workshop engages coordinated international activities in observation, theory and modeling, and involves scientists in both developed and developing countries, and provides an online platform for both research and educational opportunities for students.COMESEP 2nd Year Progress Meeting
Autor Jaša Čalogović Utorak, 29 Siječanj 2013 10:20
COMESEP 2nd Year Progress Meeting will be organized by Hvar Observatory and take place at Zagreb Observatory from 15 to 19 April, 2013 in Zagreb, Croatia. >> more information about COMESEP Meeting
New version of Drag-Based Model (DBM)
Autor Jaša Čalogović Petak, 25 Siječanj 2013 18:21
The purpose of the basic form of the model is to provide a prediction of the arrival time and impact speed at the Earth. Calculations are based on the assumption that the dominant force in the heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs is the magnetohydrodynamical equivalent of the aerodynamic drag. For a given set of input parameters it provides the ICME Sun-Earth transit time, the arrival time, and the impact speed.The new version of DBM now includes the advanced DBM which provides this output for any target in the heliosphere and takes into account also the shape of ICME employing the so-called cone-geometry. Plots showing the impact speed depending on the distance from the Sun (v-R) and CME geometry are added to the model outputs.
>> link to Drag-Based Model
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