Written by Mateja Dumbovic Wednesday, 11 March 2015 14:29
New space weather forecast tool „Forbush decrease Forecast Tool (FDFT)" is now available at Hvar Observatory webpage. FDFT is based on an empirical probabilistic model for the estimation of the Forbush decrease magnitude based on the remote CME/flare observations. It uses CME-speed, CME width, associated flare source position, associated flare soft X-ray peak intensity, and interaction parameter (likeliness of the CME-CME interaction) as an input. It provides Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude probability distribution and expected FD magnitude interval as an output. The details regarding the forecast method and the evaluation will be described in detail in the manuscript "Forbush decrease prediction based on the remote solar observations" by Dumbović et al., which is in preparation.