Ispis

List of deliverables

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  • D1- Data depository at the Hvar Observatory server: cosmic ray (CR) flux data from various neutron monitor stations, month 3, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D2- Scientific paper: Analysis of SIDC and other data sets, behaviour of the solar cycle 24, month 3, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak, J. Čalogović)
  • D3- Diploma work of M. Kuhar, Theoretical modelling, numerical integration of the radiative transfer equation, interpretation of results, month 4, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, R. Jurdana-Šepić)
  • D4- Scientific paper: Theoretical modelling, numerical integration of the radiative transfer equation, interpretation of results, final analysis and comparisons, month 6, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, R. Jurdana-Šepić)
  • D5- Scientific paper: Solar rotation, analysis of SDO data, month 6, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak, I. Poljančić-Beljan, R. Jurdana-Šepić)
  • D6- Diploma work of M. Čargonja: Solar rotation, analysis of Kanzelhohe data, month 6, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak, I. Poljančić-Beljan, R. Jurdana-Šepić)
  • D7- Data depository at the Hvar Observatory server: the satellite (ISCCP & MODIS), ground based and indirect (diurnal temperature range) cloud datasets, cloud parameters, month 6, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D8- Two scientific papers: Analysis of SIDC and other data sets, behaviour of the solar cycle 24, month 6, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak, J. Čalogović)
  • D9- Scientific paper: Meridional motions and Reynolds stress, SDO data, month 9, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak, I. Poljančić-Beljan, R. Jurdana-Šepić)
  • D10- General-public presentation: Analysis of cloud data during the largest short-term deviations in CR flux, month 9, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D11- Internal report: Understanding radiation processes in the solar atmosphere at mm/sub-mm wavelengths: Comparison of theoretical results with other data, month 10, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, R. Jurdana-Šepić)
  • D12- Scientific paper: Random walk model, calculation of the diffusion constant, SDO data, month 12, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak, I. Poljančić-Beljan, R. Jurdana-Šepić)
  • D13- Scientific paper: Reanalysis of some past data using Monte Carlo approach to test the significance of the results regarding solar influence of the climate, month 12, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D14- Conference presentation: Reanalysis of some past data using Monte Carlo approach to test the significance of the results regarding solar influence of the climate, month 12, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D15- Paper on existing magnitudes and light curves of selected T Tauri stars: Final analysis of results and interpretation, month 12, (R. Jurdana-Šepić, I. Poljančić-Beljan, R. Brajša)
  • D16- General-public lecture on solar eruptive events at Zagreb Observatory, month 12, (M. Dumbović, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak)
  • D17- Data depository at the Hvar Observatory server: coronagraphic and EUV data on CMEs and flares, in situ data on ICMEs, geomagnetic indices and cosmic ray flux, month 12, (M. Dumbović, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak)
  • D18- Scientific paper on shock formation and propagation (CC Journal: Solar Physics), month 12, (T. Žic, B. Vršnak)
  • D19- Conference presentation on shock formation and propagation, month 12, (T. Žic, B. Vršnak)
  • D20- Conference presentation: Theoretical/analytical modelling of kink instabilty, month 15, (B. Vršnak, T. Žic)
  • D21- Data depository at the Hvar Observatory server: Lightning data from various satellite and ground based data sets (GLDN, Blitzortung, LIS / OTD), month 15, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D22- Conference presentation on the geoeffectiveness of solar eruptive events: Statistical analysis and interpretation of CME/flare-related geomagnetic and cosmic-ray disturbances, month 18, (M. Dumbović, D. Sudar, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak)
  • D23a- Scientific paper: Analysis of lightning data in relation to short- and long-term variations in CR flux, month 18, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D23b- Conference presentation: Analysis of lightning data in relation to short- and long-term variations in CR flux, month 18, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D24- Data depository: Compiling and processing the synoptic weather data using Hess-Brezowsky (HB) classification system, month 21, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D25- Scientific paper on the geoeffectiveness of CIRs: Statistical analysis and interpretation of CIR-related geomagnetic and cosmic-ray disturbances, month 24, (M. Dumbović, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak)
  • D26- Conference presentation: Analysis of SIDC and other data sets, month 24, (R. Brajša, I. Poljančić-Beljan, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak, J. Čalogović)
  • D27a- Scientific paper: Analysis of long-term synoptic weather (HB) data related to changes in solar activity, month 24, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D27b- Conference presentation: Analysis of long-term synoptic weather (HB) data related to changes in solar activity, month 24, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D28- General-public lecture: Analysis of long-term synoptic weather (HB) data related to changes in solar activity, month 24, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D29- PhD thesis, M. Dumbović: Physical interpretation of the CME- and CIR-related geomagnetic and cosmic-ray disturbances, month 24, (M. Dumbović, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak)
  • D30- Conference presentation at the "European Space Weather Week": Physical interpretation of the CME- and CIR-related geomagnetic and cosmic-ray disturbances, month 24, (M. Dumbović, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak)
  • D31- Data depository: Compiling the synoptic ground based weather data (e.g. atmospheric temperature, pressure, wind), sea surface temperature data and various climate proxies, month 27, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D32- PhD Thesis of I. Poljančić-Beljan: Comprehensive analysis and comparison of Greenwich Photoheliographic Results and SOON /NOAA Catalogues, DPD, Kanzelhohe and SDO data, month 30, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak, I. Poljančić-Beljan, R. Jurdana-Šepić)
  • D33- General-public lecture at the Zagreb Observatory: Real-time forecasting of the CME arrival at any “target” in the inner heliosphere, month 30, (M. Dumbović, T. Žic, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak)
  • D34- General-public lecture: Long-term analysis of sea surface temperature and corresponding changes in the solar irradiance (solar activity), month 33, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D35- Scientific paper: Investigation of cloud properties for certain cloud types under specific atmospheric conditions where influence of solar activity on clouds is theoretically the most favourable, month 36, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D36- Scientific paper on the role of reconnection in the acceleration of CMEs: Theoretical/analytical modelling, month 36, (B. Vršnak, T. Žic)
  • D37- Conference presentation: Role of reconnection in the acceleration of CMEs, Theoretical/analytical modelling, month 36, (B. Vršnak, T. Žic)
  • D38- Conference presentation: Physical interpretation of the CME- and CIR-related geomagnetic and cosmic-ray disturbances, month 36, (M. Dumbović, T. Žic, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak)
  • D39- Scientific paper on the accuracy of the developed space weather forecasting tool (Journal: Solar Physics): Physical interpretation of the CME- and CIR-related geomagnetic and cosmic-ray disturbances, month 36, (M. Dumbović, T. Žic, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak)
  • D40- Conference presentation: Analysis of possible changes in cloud microphysical properties (e.g. thickness, opacity) related to the global electric circuit mechanism, month 39, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D41- Catalogue of observed solar flares eruptive prominences, and monitored active regions: Observations with chromospheric and photospheric HO telescopes, month 40, (M. Dumbović, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak, R. Brajša)
  • D42- Conference presentation: Observations with chromospheric and photospheric HO telescopes, month 40, (M. Dumbović, J. Čalogović, B. Vršnak, R. Brajša)
  • D43- General-public lecture: Solar activity, space weather and space climate: Analysis of SIDC and other data sets, month 48, (R. Brajša, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak, J. Čalogović)
  • D44- Scientific paper: Comparison of various theoretical mechanisms linking solar activity and climate based on previous empirical studies, month 48, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D45- Conference presentation: Comparison of various theoretical mechanisms linking solar activity and climate based on previous empirical studies, month 48, (J. Čalogović, M. Dumbović, B. Vršnak)
  • D46- Conference presentation: Analysis of acquired data: Monitoring of selected bright weak-line T-Tauri stars, month 48, (R. Jurdana-Šepić, I. Poljančić-Beljan, H. Božić, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak)
  • D47- Sci.-Popular paper on early type stars: Analysis of acquired data: Monitoring of selected bright weak-line T-Tauri stars, month 48, (R. Jurdana-Šepić, I. Poljančić-Beljan, H. Božić, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak)
  • D48- BVR photometric database of candidate stars: Photometric observations, and data compilation: Discovering exoplanets, month 48, (H. Božić, D. Sudar, D. Ruždjak)

 

Ispis

WP1: Solar activity and its influence on the heliosphere and geospace

The WP1-related research encompasses empirical and theoretical research on the solar activity (solar eruptive activity, coronal holes and corotating interaction regions, evolution of active regions, solar rotation and solar 11-year activity cycle, long-term changes of the solar activity, etc.) and its influence on the state of the heliosphere and geospace, including the space weather forecasting.

 

T1.1. Eruptive processes in the solar atmosphere and variability of the solar wind

In T1.1 the role of ideal and resistive MHD processes is investigated in detail. The kink and torus instability, as well as to the physical relationship between CMEs and flares is studied, which includes the role of magnetic reconnection and the effect of self-inductivity on the evolution of the CME electric-current system. Nonlinear processes included in the formation and propagation of MHD shock waves (global-coronal and interplanetary) are being studied from empirical and theoretical point of view, including numerical simulations. The analysis of kinematics and dynamics of coronal and heliospheric propagation of CMEs is also performed. The central issue of the research is modelling in the context of space weather forecasting. Besides the CME-propagation modelling, the effects of active regions and equatorial coronal holes on the state of the background solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field is also studied, paying special attention to the evolutionary aspects of these phenomena.

 

T1.2. Geoeffectiveness of solar activity and space weather

The geoeffectiveness of CMEs is investigated in detail, with special emphasis on the forecasting based on the remote spaceborne white-light coronagraphic and coronal EUV observations of the dynamics of coronal eruptions. Similar studies are also performed for the corotating interaction regions (CIRs) associated with equatorial coronal holes (CHs). It is expected that the results achieved in the scope of this task will provide a better understanding of the CME-ICME connection and their space-weather effects, particularly GMSs and FDs. Furthermore, the results should provide early-warning procedures and forecasting of the GMS and FD level. Finally, the procedures developed in T1.2 will be set on the HO web page for a public usage.

 

T1.3. Long-term changes of solar activity and solar rotation

In Task 1.3, characteristics and evolution of the solar 11-year activity cycles is studied, including possibilities for the forecasting of the activity level of forthcoming cycles. This aspect of the research is extended also to the phenomenon of the long-term modulations of the 11-year solar-activity cycle and to the research related to the so called "space-climate" studies. Consequently this objective is closely related to the research of the Earth-climate effects (see WP2). For the analysis of the long term variations of solar activity cosmogenic C-14 and Be-10 data are used as proxies.

 

Ispis

WP2: Influence of solar variability on Earth's climate

The research within WP2 considers investigation of the impact of the solar-modulated energetic particles flux on the Earth's atmosphere, the development of rigorous statistical examination methods based on the Monte Carlo approach, the influence of energetic particles within the global electric-current circuit on hypothesized changes in cloud microphysics and lightning phenomenon, and analysis of long-term ground-based measurements, to extend the potential analysis period to pre-satellite era. The research in the frame of WP2 is based on the analysis of numerous satellite and ground-based datasets. Results will be compared with theoretical mechanisms and models to test their relevance for the solar-terrestrial connection.

 

T2.1. Data compiling and development of statistical methods for the data analysis

In Task 2.1 the cosmic ray (CR) flux data archives are compiled to obtain a catalogue of all short-term events with largest deviations in CR flux (Forbush decreases, FDs and Ground Level Enhancements, GLEs). In addition, the diurnal temperatures (DTR) data are compiled as a proxy for cloud cover. Statistical examination methods based on the Monte Carlo approach are being developed and past statistical studies and their results are being reassessed. Lightning observations from ground and space borne observations related to short-term high-amplitude deviations in CR flux (FD & GLE events) and long-term variations in solar activity are being collected.

 

T2.2. Data analysis and interpretation

The uncertainties and errors in frequently used satellite cloud datasets are being quantified and the upper detection limit for ionization-induced changes in clouds is being determined, regarding the cloud data quality. This task includes the analysis of diurnal temperature data as a proxy for cloud cover, the synoptic weather data in order to examine the links between long-term solar activity and historical climate records, and lightning observations related to short-term high magnitude deviations in CR flux and long-term variations in solar activity. The Monte Carlo approach is adjusted/advanced to test the significance of current and past studies and long (centennial) timescale associations of climate variability to solar activity are being examined.

 

T2.3. Analysis of long-term ground-based climatologic measurements

This task is devoted to investigation of cloud properties theoretically optimal for the detection of an observable CR-cloud response, analysis and interpretation of aerosol data related to the CR induced ionization changes in the atmosphere, and search for possible changes in cloud microphysical properties connected to the global electric circuit mechanism. Various climate proxies (which extend more into the past) and parameters are employed to test the solar variability influence on climate and comparison of various theoretical mechanisms of solar influence on climate is preformed.

 

Ispis

WP3: Eruptive activity of late-type and sun-like stars

The main goal of WP3 is to achieve a better understanding of the magnetic activity of late-type stars with deep convective zones and to determine their XUV and plasma fluxes over wide range of ages. This will advance our comprehension of the magnetic past of the Sun by utilizing carefully selected solar analogues (with different ages and rotation-rates) that serve as proxies for the Sun over its main-sequence lifetime and the most powerful magnetic-field related solar/stellar eruptive processes.

 

T3.1. Preparations of observing capacities

The main goal of T3.1 is to prepare the HO 1-m telescope for the foreseen observations, i.e., to install the spectrograph and adjust hardware and software needed for the photometric and spectrographic use. HO 1-m Austro-Croatian telescope is used for long observing runs and to concentrate on brighter stars in order to ensure temporal cadence high enough for the observations. Spectra in the H-alpha and/or lithium spectral regions are recorded by the Shelyak eShell echelle spectrogtraph of the Gothard Astrophysical Obsarvatory, Lorand Eotvos University spectrograph attached to the HO 1-m telescope.

 

T3.2. Observations, data analysis and interpretation

The research activity will be focused on monitoring young pre-main sequence objects using HO 1-m telescope, in particular the T Tauri stars, representing youthful versions of the sun-like stars, with masses of a few tenths to a few times the mass of the Sun. On young stars prominences are large enough to be seen in disk-integrated H-alpha spectra. Stellar CMEs can be detected in spectra as extra blue shifted emission in the Balmer lines (H-alpha, H-beta, and H-gamma). Two types of observations are performed: photometric monitoring of selected stars in blue filters (U & B) and in the narrow band H-alpha filter, and spectrographic observations in the H-alpha and/or lithium spectral regions. Radial and rotational velocities, effective temperatures, and gravity of the observed objects are determined, and an estimate of the age and the chromospheric activity level is performed.

 

Ispis

WP4: Radiative processes in solar and stellar atmospheres

The research on stellar radiative processes mainly concerns empirical and theoretical aspects of the spectral and photometric variability of various types of variable stars. On the other hand, the research on radiative processes in the solar atmosphere embraces basic mechanisms of emission in the solar atmosphere, especially from the solar chromosphere, i.e., the continuum radiation (thermal and non-thermal bremsstrahlung) and the spectral line emission. The research in this field provides a better understanding of plasma instabilities and plasma emission mechanisms, comprehension of the physical state of solar and stellar atmospheres, as well as MHD and HD processes in circumstellar space.

 

T4.1. Spectroscopic and photometric properties of variable stars

The research related to the stellar radiative processes will be focused on various aspects of the physics of stellar atmospheres and binary stars. It is primarily based on continuous photometric monitoring of various stellar objects. The research encompasses spectroscopic and photometric properties of Be stars, Be shell stars and selected eclipsing binary stars, observations and interpretation of light variations of variable stars in galactic clusters and selected Ap stars, the light variability of pulsating red giants, and classic chemically-peculiar magnetic stars. In addition, the research will make use of the discovery and characterization of variable stars employing the LINEAR sky survey data base. The empirical aspect of T4.1 is based on both the archived and newly measured data provided mainly by Hvar Observatory 65-cm and 1-m telescopes, Ondrejov Observatory 2-m spectrographic telescope (Czech Republic), and the LINEAR sky survey data.

 

T4.2. Circumstellar and accretion-disc matter

The research within T4.2 considers the influence of the circumstellar matter to the radiation field of eclipsing binaries, the light variability of young stars due to their accretion disks, and numerical HD and MHD modelling of accretion and discs. The empirical aspect of T4.2 is based on both the archived and newly measured data provided mainly by Hvar Observatory 65-cm and 1-m telescopes, as well as the Ondrejov Observatory 2-m spectrographic telescope (Czech Republic).

 

T4.3. Investigation of the solar He I 1083 nm spectral line

The research in the scope of T4.3 concerns the formation of the He I 1083 nm spectral line in the solar atmosphere. This line provides a unique insight into both chromospheric and coronal plasma processes on the Sun. The archived full-disc solar images in the He I 1083 nm line obtained with the ChroTel instrument installed at the Vacuum Tower Telescope, German Solar Telescopes at Izana, Tenerife are used to study the evolution of coronal holes, evolution of CMEs and coronal waves, and enhanced helium absorption at the feet of coronal loops.

 

T4.4. Analysis of solar plasma with ALMA

The research within T4.4 is related to solar observations that will be performed with the new system of radio telescopes, ALMA (Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array). Solar measurements performed with ALMA are used to test models of the solar radiation at mm and sub-mm wavelengths relying on various radiation mechanisms applied to different models of the solar atmosphere. In addition, the coronal and chromospheric heating and centre-to-limb brightness variation of the Sun at mm and sub/mm wavelengths are also investigated.